The number of new cases is plummeting in the capital with new modelling suggesting as few as just 24 a day.
The ‘R’ reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days, according to analysis by Cambridge University and Public Health England. It was initially the hub of the UK’s outbreak and was considered to be weeks ahead of the rest of the country.
When the lockdown was imposed on March 23 it was being hit by around 200,000 new cases per day, but modelling suggests it could be free of new diagnoses by next month. The team of researchers estimate around 1.8 million people in London (20%) have already had the disease, suggesting they could have a higher level of immunity, making it harder for the bug to spread.
The team of researchers say between 10 and 24 people in London had caught coronavirus on May 10. But PHE-Cambridge projection, based on death data from both bodies, has been called into question by some experts, who say the rate in London is ‘extremely unlikely to be so low’.