Tornado warning for Southern England!

Today is set to be a lively one on the weather front with some sharp showers producing severe downpours and strong winds.

These showers could be significant with forecaster Nick Finnis warning of the potential for a Tornado.

The full forecast can be seen below:

Issued 2020-07-24 22:21:06
Valid: 25/07/2020 0600 – 26/07/2020 0600

Forecast Details

Multi-centred low pressure system will be slow-moving to the NW of Scotland on Saturday, associated cold front, bringing early outbreaks of rain, will clear east from most of Britain during the morning, but will trail across SE England for a time.

An increasingly unstable post-frontal returning Polar maritime airmass will follow the cold front, characterised by steepening lapse rates as colder air spreads NE aloft atop of surface warmed in sunny spells. So scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms will readily develop and move NE during the morning and into the early afternoon, before showers/storms ease eastwards in the afternoon across central and northern areas.

However, further south, increasing convection and risk of thunderstorms look to develop from the SW along trailing cold front across S/SE England during the afternoon and evening, as a diffluent upper trough arriving in the west in the afternoon engages and creates increasing lift along the trailing front, before front clears east late evening. Moderately strong jet stream along with 30-40 knots of deep layer shear along frontal zone should be sufficient for organised convection, perhaps some bowing line segments, capable of hail, locally strong convective gusts of 40-50mph and torrential rain leading to localised flooding. Also, with fairly moist surface flow lifted on warm side of cold front (dew points of 15-16C), low LCLs (lifted condensation levels) and locally enhanced low-level shear along front may allow an isolated supercell/ organised storm with mesocyclone to develop that may produce a tornado, especially across southern counties of England. Have issued a Severe Weather area across S/SE England for risk of flash-flooding, given dry ground, along with risk of isolated tornado.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely develop, especially in the afternoon, across Ireland/N. Ireland, as passage of trough creates steep lapse rates leading to modestly strong instability and large scale ascent. Some of the storms may cluster – bringing a risk of localised flash flooding here. A severe weather area has been issued here too.

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